Elections Intelligence
SoonA polling-average model that prices races from aggregated polls and fundamentals.
Polling averagesPolling trendsTurnout modelsDemographicsHistorical vote patterns
Coming soon
In development
The Elections Intelligence framework and its data sources are in place; the model itself is in development and no estimates are shown yet — a placeholder number would be indistinguishable from a real one to the reader who most needs to tell them apart. What it will use and produce is below.
Intended data sources
- Polling averages
- Polling trends
- Turnout models
- Demographics
- Historical vote patterns
Model outputs
- Independent candidate probability
- Polling trend analysis
- Uncertainty interval
- Scenario breakdown
Planned models
- SoonPresidential modelState-level polling average with a correlated-error turnout model.
- SoonSenate modelSeat-by-seat polling average with a national-environment adjustment.