Economics Intelligence
SoonPrices macro-release contracts from official data and the release process.
FRED official series (CPI, unemployment, GDP, rates)Consensus estimatesNowcast series
Coming soon
In development
The Economics Intelligence framework and its data sources are in place; the model itself is in development and no estimates are shown yet — a placeholder number would be indistinguishable from a real one to the reader who most needs to tell them apart. What it will use and produce is below.
Intended data sources
- FRED official series (CPI, unemployment, GDP, rates)
- Consensus estimates
- Nowcast series
Model outputs
- Independent probability estimate
- Model vs market disagreement
- Release-process modelling
Planned models
- SoonLatest-print modelDistance-to-threshold logistic on the most recent FRED release.
- SoonRelease-process modelConsensus-vs-actual and nowcast series to model the next release.